AI Economy
In Anthropic's Extreme Scenario, Nearly 1 in 5 Cognitive Workers Are Unemployed
Modeled 2030 unemployment for cognitive occupations across three AI paths. Anthropic Institute scenarios for US management, professional, sales, and office work
In Anthropic's Extreme Scenario, Nearly 1 in 5 Cognitive Workers Are Unemployed
Why it matters: Anthropic’s Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI model finds cognitive-worker unemployment stays near today’s 2.9% under a modest path, rises to 4.5% under substantial change, and jumps to 17.9% in the extreme path—nearly one in five knowledge workers jobless by 2030—while the authors attach no probabilities to any scenario.
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- Anthropic Institute
- Unit
- % unemployed (cognitive)
- Data as of
- September 9, 2026
- Scope
- Anthropic Institute scenarios for US management, professional, sales, and office work